Identifying Degraded and Sensitive to Desertification Agricultural Soils in Thessaly, Greece, under Simulated Future Climate Scenarios

The impact of simulated future climate change on land degradation was assessed in three representative study sites Thessaly, Greece, one the country’s most important agronomic zones. Two possible scenarios were used for estimation climatic conditions, which based greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Three time periods selected: reference past period 1981–2000 comparison, 2041–2060 2081–2100. Based soil characteristics, type uses, management prevailing area, Environmentally Sensitive to desertification Areas (ESAs) each using MEDALUS-ESAI index. Soil losses derived by water tillage erosion also existing empirical equations. Furthermore, primary salinization risk an algorithm individual indicators related natural environment or socio-economic characteristics. obtained data both predicted increases mean maximum minimum air temperature. Concerning annual precipitation, reductions are generally expected sites. Desertification is increase comparison period. estimated be more sloping areas, due especially at least site. Primary higher site soils under poorly drainage conditions.